2012 BBWAA Predictions

Barry Larkin (70.5%), Jeff Bagwell (58.2%), Jack Morris (57.7%), Lee Smith (49%), Tim Raines (41.4%), Edgar Martinez (38.6%), Alan Trammell (26.8%), Larry Walker (25%), Fred McGriff (22.2%), Mark McGwire (21.8%), Rafael Palmeiro (19.3%), Bernie Williams (18.8%), Dave Parker (17.1%), Don Mattingly (15.1%), Dale Murphy (14.4%), Juan Gonzalez (6.2%), Javy Lopez (3.8%), Vinny Castilla (3.6%), Tim Salmon (2.6%), Bill Mueller (0.7%), Ruben Sierra (0.7%), Brad Radke (0.2%), Brian Jordan (0.2%), Terry Mulholland (0.2%), Joe Randa (0.2%), Eric Young (0.2%), Edgardo Alfonzo, Pedro Astacio, David Bell, Jeromy Burnitz, Scott Erickson, Carl Everett, Jeff Fassero, Alex S. Gonzalez, Danny Graves, Rick Helling, Dustin Hermanson, Jose Hernandez, Matt Lawton, Jeff Nelson, Phil Nevin and Jose Vizcaino (0%)

If my predictions are right, there won’t be a single former player inducted by the Baseball Writer’s next year.  The Veteran’s Committee might elect Ron Santo and there’s a chance Buzzie Bavasi, Jim Kaat, Gil Hodges and Minnie Minoso could get support, but I really only see Santo and Bavasi as strong contenders. 

Getting my vote, if I had one to submit, on the BBWAA ballot would be Jeff Bagwell and that’s it.  I see too many parallels between Larkin and Trammell–Barry outhit Trammell for average but their career numbers are quite close.  Why has Barry received so much support while Trammell has received so little?  I do, however, see many holdovers jumping up a bit in voting.  I think Bagwell will see a significant rise in his total but still fail to see him make the HOF next year.  Both Larkin and Jack Morris should rise with this extremely weak freshman crop, of which Bernie Williams looks to be the only holdover for 2013.  Juan Gonzalez might be the only holdover from last year to get bumped off the list, ala Harold Baines of last year, but the weak crop should benefit him–next year he might get shuttled off the ballot with a strong freshman class headed by Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Kenny Lofton and Steve Finley.

  1. Giles P Kiser said:

    I think this could be Larkin’s year. If he doesn’t make it in this year, that’ll be it. I don’t think he’ll have enough support to really get close in light of all of the other retirees that will start showing up on the ballot.

    I hope you’re right about Santo getting in. It’d be about time.

  2. brettkiser said:

    I don’t know if it’s do-or-die for Larkin but he certainly has a better chance in 2012 than he will in 2013 with a number of better players appearing on the ballot for the first time. I always liked Barry but I can’t, for the life of me, understand why he’s received so much support while his relative equal, Alan Trammell, has receievd so little.

  3. Giles P Kiser said:

    It could come down to Barry being a more likable guy. It shouldn’t but that may very well be it.

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